Headline suggests that the Democrats - who are currently more united than they've been since probably Kennedy - aren't united.
this post was submitted on 06 Aug 2024
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If you think that's baffling, take a look at Nate Silver's column:
https://www.natesilver.net/p/tim-walz-is-a-minnesota-nice-choice
I'm not sure if Nate is talking about the same Walz and Shapiro as the rest of us.
Shapiro has Israel baggage that I am so glad I don't have to hear about online for the next forever. Kelly had a messy divorce that I'm sure nobody wants to have dredged up. Walz seems relatable to a great number of people.
Plus, he drives a 1979 IH Scout.
Shapiro's Israel issue would have been a toss-up issue. Some independents wanted him to be very pro-Israel, others no so much. Probably wouldn't have made a huge difference.
On the other hand, might have made a difference in Michigan among the large muslim minority who may not have come out to vote.
I really just hope Walz is not going to be another Kaine.
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Lmao, Silver is equating a Walz pick to a TIM KAINE pick.
I’m sorry, I can’t read any further with sooo much cope.
Yeah, it doesn't get much better. Silver's great when it's just about numbers, but less so when it's slightly more intangible. This column might be the peak example.
I remember listening to a podcast they would make, a lady and a guy and Nate Silver. I think it's that podcast that makes me not really like him or his ideas aside from the numbers and the team he surrounds himself with. I look at 538 and I trust it for the most part but if it has Silver attached to it, I think of it as editorial
538 no longer has Nate Silver or his model; Disney bought it and fired him like a year ago or so.
Still, I agree; I don't like his politics, but his analysis of polls and numbers is probably the best out there.
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He seems to have gotten more right-wing in recent years, although he doesn't talk about it too explicitly (maybe he was always like that and I just didn't know).
I remember him downplaying the J6 insurrection during one of the podcasts which was the point where I lost a lot of respect for him, and frankly him leaving isn't a big loss as he seemed to be just over election modelling in general by the end.
You should read through the comments on that post.
Almost NONE of Silvers subscribers are having it.
This just a way off base miss of Silvers.
Believe the numbers, doubt the pundit.
Silver's claim that Walz is a Tim Kaine pick is just dead on arrival. I'm sorry, I appreciate his actual model, but his argument here is just too speculative.
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He can defiantly crush Vance and speak to the Midwest. I think that is what matters.
Defiantly definitely works too ;)
While still being a genuinely good person.
Also, he isn’t shy about cutting through the bullshit to the issues. Like this clip. “Oh what a monster!”…
Dude got nominated like an hour ago. How are they putting out articles like this?
Like the average person ain't even got home from work on the east coast.
People had a week to draft one for each VP candidate being vetted.
Like Carter’s obituary - write it now so you can publish it early.
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They are preloaded and ready to go. They probably have other articles in the can for the other names that were being considered as well.
It might also surprise you to know that major news networks pre-tape celebrity obituaries just in case that person dies.
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Walz has been known to be on the shortlist for at least a week, probably longer. They probably had articles like this in the pipeline for all the likely candidates.
The best one I found is this opening from cnn:
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz hadn’t been in the top tier of potential running mates for Kamala Harris until the past few weeks.
No shit!
https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/06/politics/math-behind-harris-walz-vp-pick/index.html
The campaign worked with news outlets and let them write the articles, under what's often called an embargo. Basically, in exchange for holding the story until it's announced, the journalists can write the story ahead of time.
Source: dated a girl who worked in PR and a girl who was in media relations for a large company
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Donald Trump is ideally suited to expand Kamala Harris' appeal across the ideological spectrum.
I legit forgot what it feels like to have HOPE
Yep.
Harris has an edge to her, she’s quick-smart (imo this is good for presidential material) and that may be off putting to some (because women aren’t supposed to be like that , right?), however, Walz is straight up good guy and he can balance out the ticket as far as presentation.
My only concern about Walz is that he presents so strongly as a good guy/dad figure that, should Harris be elected, the typical behavior is to put the VP up for election upon the incumbent’s term(s) expiring. Does he have the presence to be the potential presidential candidate in the future?
Well now that depends: Would being in the VP chair help mould him into someone who can rise to the challenge?
Who knows!
For now let's not worry about that. Seriously. Trump bad. Beat first. Big unga bunga, big stick, big smack. Don't let go of that question, just file it away for a bit.
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Why is that even a concern? Frankly, they should be pushing for legislation that disqualifies senior citizens anyway and he'll be almost 70 when his turn comes around. Just retire, guys. You've earned it.
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Yes.
He was the best choice. They can win and we can finally force trump to account.
Tim Walz for America's Dad
Gooood morning USA, I got a feeling like it's gonna be a wonderful day.
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