Cool. Poland ain’t gonna start shit.
Any attack on Poland will trigger Article 5.
this post was submitted on 22 Jul 2023
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Poland won't, but according to Hitler in September 1st, 1939, Nazi Germany was defending itself from Polish attacks.
I think putin is thinking of forcing Belarus with Wagner to attack Poland and see how NATO will react when the threat would be war with Russia (if NATO will respond, which I hope it will, I think Belarus will get the same help as Armenia).
I think NATOs response would have to be a strong, decisive one. No NATO member wants the Alliance to look weak. Nobody wants World War III, either, but I think they’d conclude that showing weakness is riskier than calling Putin’s bluff.
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"Putin tells ____ any _____ is attack on Russia" is basically a meme now
No, Putin. An attack on Belarus is only an attack on Belarus. Someone would have to attack Russia for it to be an attack on Russia. Look at a fucking map.
(Yes, I’m being obtuse, but giving this asshole a hard time makes me smile. Cut me some slack.)
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Is it only me or does Putin look really bad in this photo? I mean he seems unhealthy and in addition to that he looks like he aged 10 years in just 2. Amazing speedrun.
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So is Belarus going to attack Poland now or is Putin planning a false flag attach again?
I think it's probably Wagner was moved there for that reason and putin wants to test if alliance will be afraid to reason.
If NATO responds then he sacrifices just Belarus, but if it won't then other eastern countries are at risk.
Wagner already found out before, but we can do it again I guess. And the rest of NATO can tag in too, this time.
I don't think he cares about Wagner, he wants to see if NATO backs up Poland if Poland is attacked as a response to Poland "attacking" Belarus.
BTW: Poland doesn't have stellar reputation in the west, primarily because of politicians who attack west and strangely are warm towards Russia. One might say "what do you mean? Poland is very anti Russia" and this is true with most Poles, but the ruling party still continues fighting with the west, some even say that they don't know which enemy is worse, west or east, like WTF? Then there's a Konfederacja populist party by Russia which is fully against west and its leaders advocated to improve relations with Russia. Most members of course are less open and saying that we should give Russia what it wants or we get attacked.
That was also the only party that demanded our politicians to apologize when a protester splashed Russian ambassador with red paint at the beginning of the full invasion.
I think that was the point /u/gravitas_deficiency@sh.itjust.works was making. Russia sacrificed Wagner in Syria and are more than willing to do it again.
I'm not up to snuff on NATO regulations. As I understand it, if a NATO nation gets attacked, the rest of them are obliged to defend, correct? What happens if that nation is "the aggressor". Like in this situation if Poland were to do a first strike against Belarus or Russia and they respond attacking Poland, is the rest of NATO obliged to help defend Poland?
No, NATO doesn't interfere if a member starts a war. It's a defensive treaty. That said, Poland alone wouldn't be able to do much, and democracies rarely openly declare war.
I had a deployment with Polish soldiers. They are a modern and extremely capable defensive force. It would likely turn into the same thing we're seeing in Ukraine (smaller force that is well trained and better supplied vs sending a lot of bodies and old tech). I don't think we'll ever see a Polish led force invading Belarus or Russia without a massive NATO backing and a lot of foreign units already on the way to support them. Defensively, they will fuck you up. Offensively, they don't have the man power to go deep into enemy territory.
The Polish have historical grudges with Russia and are chomping at the bit to hurt some Russians. It is probably NATO that is holding them back from sending units to Ukraine
However what if a NATO country starts a war with Belarus, and then Russia attacks the NATO country?
The NATO country would never have initiated a war with Russia, they would have initiated it with Belarus.
Does a NATO country automatically become vulnerable if they have any wars currently ongoing? Because that would mean Russia could have attacked America during the war in Afghanistan and NATO would not have been able to get involved.
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Belarus better stay within its boarders, because that the only way Belarus will be attacked.
I think after Poland ignored two Russian missiles, putin is thinking to use Wagner from Belarus to test and see what will happen if NATO country gets attacked. The normal answer would be that it would be war between Belarus and NATO. Which should be fairly quick. He is trying to tip the scale by saying Russia will be also back Belarus if attacked (BTW Hitler also stated WW2 claiming Poland attacked Nazi Germany), hoping that NATO won't back up Poland.
Thing is, every line Russia has drawn in the sand, accession to NATO, arms supplies to Ukraine etc have been proven to be empty words. Russia has backed off each time.
An attack on Poland from Belarus would quickly lead to an invasion from Poland. Securing Ukraine's northern border would free up a lot of Ukrainian resources and would put NATO soldiers in another neighboring country to Russia.
It would be suicide for Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
This night for the first time Polish regular soldiers fired on our territory. Since 5:45 a.m. we have been returning the fire, and from now on bombs will be met by bombs.
Can you cite a source?
Edit: thanks for the sources
This was fragment of Hitler's speech on September 1st, 1939.
https://carolynyeager.net/gleiwitz-%E2%80%9Cfalse-flag%E2%80%9D-incident-pure-fiction
That's one very weird source you're linking.
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