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Now that we have final numbers. It appears that Harris had all the white & black support she needed for an EC victory. But Trump outright flipping Latino men and making huge gains with Latino women seems to have made all the difference.
What do you think?
First image is 2024, second is 2020.
After Donald Trump called every stripe of Latino, rapists and murderers, publicly, often and loudly, More Latinos voted for Donald Trump in this past election than have ever voted for any Republican candidate in any American election ever. Spin it any way you like.
I used to joke that America is a terrible place, full of narcisists, liars, and assholes.
Trump isn't the cause of this. He's just exposed how much those jokes are based on reality, and are no longer jokes.
He's brought to the forefront our worst qualities, and confirmed the fact that no matter how much progress America has made, we're all still just a bunch of racists and assholes. And this time it's not a joke. It's confirmed.
It appears that’s what won him the election. Yes turnout was down, but the demo percentages from 2020 to 2024 are not that much different outside of Latino voters.
And I must ask? How did Trump pull this off? And would Kamala have won without the Latino rightward shift?
Donald Trump doubled (+100%) the black vote he received in 2020. Across the board minorities saw change in putting Trump back in the big seat, as apposed to the disaster he will bring to them, and their families. People went through the pandemic, only to be hit with what's felt like the largest peacetime inflation, which was not handled by the Biden administration. Normal people don't care about economic numbers when their paying 30-50% more for milk, eggs, bread, and rent. When faced with more of the same with no real enumerated plan to get better, and back patting, they voted for different, come what may. You know which minority group didn't break right, Jews (+5% 3.5% being the margin of error).
Trump gained 2% of black men, and lost 2% of black women. He made virtually no gains with black voters.
He gained literally 1% of them. I don’t know where this narrative of trump making massive gains with black people is coming from. All the data suggest at best, a very small gain from 2020 compared to the enormous gains he received with Latinos.
Biden handled Trump's inflation expertly though. Everyone in 2021 said we would go through a recession, and we got a soft landing instead. And groceries are not 30% more expensive. They are around 15% above 2019 prices, not even that far out from historical inflation rates.
Trump won because of economic gaslighting and you and half the people on the internet still repeat these lies.
I think white men and white women bear more of the blame here purely by population size.
Agreed. Despite all the nuances (which are important, too)... Judging by this table, the biggest total blame is on white men, followed by white women and latino men, though there aren't that many of them. But I feel i need to say this doesn't have anything to do with ethnicity. You could also make a chart of city vs rural areas or several other factors and you'd probably also find interesting correlations and shifts in opinion.
With how thin our election margins are, I wonder if literally just misogynists can swing the election. Would 1 in 100 Americans refuse to vote for a woman for president? I think maybe yes.
It's hard to separate out the factors. Would a man have also struggled with a campaign starting so late (and doing so poorly in a previous primary). Would a white women? How can we separate out the influence of race, sex and the less than ideal running circumstances.
Given who she is, and running when she had to, she actually did pretty damn well.
Tbh looking for blame beyond Biden seems pointless to me. She has every sign of having been able to win over more people had she been prepped as the nominee from the start..
Don't forget all the people who voted for Biden in 2020 and didn't fucking vote in 2024
15 million of them. That is a staggering number.
15 million of them. That is a staggering number.
It's also not an accurate number. The official count for Biden in 2020 was about 81.3 million (found many places online, but the official one is a good choice) and the unofficial count for Harris by AP so far is about 74.3 million. That's about 7 million, which is less than half of what you claimed.
People have got to stop just posting straight up false information. If you don't know, don't post.
It would be more appropriate to say outdated. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2024/11/13/20-million-votes-election-harris-trump-fact-check/76136743007/ As of November 6th 16 million less votes than the year before had been counted.
Need some titles on those columns. I'm guessing red/blue are the usual party colors, but what is the 3rd?
The biggest factor really is disengagement. There where millions who where involved in 2020 that just skipped out this time.
3rd is the percentage of the vote amongst all demographics.
Why are columns 1 & 2 shifter between the two images? Makes comparison harder.
"Are we out of touch with our core voters?"
"No, it's the voters who are wrong".
This will probably be how the Democrats regroup after the loss.
White people are so obsessed with blaming an optgroup like what about all the white guys that voted for him
What about all the white women who voted for Trump? Benefitting from structural racism is a helluva drug
The fact that any group aside from white men voted for trumpism is the issue. The disconnect was the complicit main stream media sane washing the craziness. They put racism/homophobia/fascism on the same level as Harris' policies.
Idk, white folks voting for Trump is an issue if you ask me, a white guy. Too many white folks sane washing his shit. Morning Joe went from "he's a fascist" to "let's put out differences aside". Other whities need to realize this is a grift that will likely kill your own.
As a data analyst, the way the two graphs are setup terribly. There's really not enough information to come up with any conclusions from the charts.
Also, first, there's not enough information from the graphs to determine the situation since it's only by percentages and not population. Second, our system is based on the winners of each state and used by the electoral votes. So overall popular vote isn't going to determine who got elected, even if the chart showed all blue for all demographics.
Please be careful whenever you ask these questions. It's so easy to blame one single minority group for a widespread failure. Of course analysis of individual voting groups is legitimate, as long as you properly frame what you're doing.
This is a serious issue both because of the connection with racism (i.e., it's the Latinos' fault) and abdication of responsibility (i.e., we bear no responsibility).
White people voting for the right is the problem. Like how can we go on here and blame Latinos for shifting when such a high percentage of white people voted for him? Especially when you factor in the population size and not just % left or right.
I am ashamed of my peers.
Whole thread full of people blaming an entire race and sex whether that's Latinos, Latino men, Whites, or White men. You ask a stupid question and you get stupid answers.
White Dude for Harris here. I am sad face
Your narrative is that Latinos "shifted right" but I think this is a false framing- it was the Biden/Harris administration that shifted hard right on its proposed immigration policies and it left many Latino voters feeling politically abandoned.
Look at the Democrats' 2024 immigration bill- it is deportations, immigration quotas, and building the wall - while including nothing "left of center" such as amnesty. It is literally a Trump 2016 wishlist.
So the solution to not liking the democrat shift right is to join in with the side off the scale right? I'm not following the logic there...
Populist messaging is popular because it acknowledges that people are suffering and offers easy "solutions" to it.
Most folks don't actually want to hear the details, they're both busy and don't fucking understand it without the benefits of a educational system that has been systemically destroyed for decades.
Trump said he'll fix the economy and blamed Biden, Harris wanted to pretend that the lines went up so things were good because she was effectively burdened as an incumbent candidate.
Harris decentivized her base of support by chasing Lucy's football of Republicans that aren't fucking fascists, going after the Cheney votes of all fucking things, Trump siphoned votes from people that don't quite know how to fix the problem but know there is a problem.
You can point to Harris's specific policies all you want, the people you need to get to the polls and vote for you don't know about them because they're boring.
Kamala lost because the Dems didn't show up. Again. Look at the number of votes for 2020 vs 2024. All those "undecided" and "obstainers" that didn't just stay home. They didn't bother doing a mail in.
To actually answer the post title you'd have to go state by state in the swing states to see if she could flip enough of them to make a difference. I suspect the bigger problem is still lack of turnout rather than any specific demographic.
Democrats failed to solve people's issues. That's just it.
But Americans are in for a hard awakening if they think that in general Latin American population is progressive or left leaning. And that democrats have their guaranteed vote.
Each person is different, of course. And the average doesn't change any person individual values.
But on average Latin American countries tend to have overwhelming conservative cultures when compared with USA/Europe.
This doesn't negate any Latin American person who is progressive, of course. Just talking about averages and the reality that was shown by the polls.
In general Democrats, and any left leaning party, think that because they defend immigrants, immigrants will support them by default. This has been shown far from the truth. If someone have conservative values they will probably vote for a conservative party. That's just it. One person won't become progressive (as in stopping being sexist or transphobic) just because they moved from one country to another. An immigrant is a whole person with their own sets of values, both before and after they migrate, and won't be reduced to "being an immigrant" when voting, specially once they are legally settled in a place and their residence won't be at risk, they will just vote for their values. If they have conservative values they'll vote conservative if they have progressive values they'll vote progressive.
Many legal immigrants get pissed if you conflate them with illegal immigrants. They try very hard distance themselves from those people. Couple that with pervasive machismo and Catholic ignorance and this is what you get.
It's really unclear, to me, what these tables are even saying. What's each column?
These are national statistics. They bear no direct relation to the outcome.
The Dems would have won if they ran a campaign relevant to the struggling and apprehensive. They didn't. They lost.
Decades of under-education could only lead to shit. But even for a cynical asshole.like me, your country electing the best friend of the most notorious pedo, after he tried to overtake the previous election is quite something.
I know! Let's blame EVERYBODY. That way nobody is left out and we can just admit we ALL fucked up so next time we can constructively work together to NOT fuck up instead of slinging mud at each other for the next four years.
Only 4% of Latino men shifted. That chart says Latino men were 5% of the total vote. Harris needed more than another .02%
I think you’re getting confused by the column placement. This appears to be a 19 point shift towards Trump which seems substantial.
I prefer to blame stupid racist people instead of ethnic groups.
Since Trump’s number one message was about immigration, it makes me wonder how Latinos took that message. A bystanding white person might think that US Latinos should be appalled at the way Trump painted Mexican immigrants as criminals.
But then again, maybe Mexican immigrants who’ve been in the US a while look down on those recently arriving, or don’t want more of them to compete with. After all if you are a Mexican immigrant, you probably compete with other Mexican immigrants for work on some level.
So there again we have the failure of identity politics. It’s about simple “me” economics, not “we” identity.
A functional, coherent working class policy would've ticked some of those numbers in the campaign's favor across the board without even having to divide by race or gender.