this post was submitted on 27 Nov 2024
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Any indication of what changed?
It’s probably not anything that recently changed. Economies are like rubber bands. They can stretch and run for a while in a deficit or without having proper upside cash flow while in a wartime economy, but eventually all of that has to come back. Russia has just had compounding economic problems (because they’re stupid) and now the hurting is starting to add up.
Russia is running out of reserves. They managed to boost the Ruble once before when they forced their remaining trading partners to switch to it. Now that they bought up pretty much everything there is, the value will continue go down. I've seen a lot of people predict that this would happen in 2025, so this may be the beginning.
What does this really mean in relation to a country that regularly pretends reality is malleable?
We made a new currency, it's all good, we will pay you with it instead!
Pretty much everyone including notoriously shady Chinese banks have stopped doing business with them and are no longer handing out loans. You can bullshit your way through all sorts of things but even for the most corrupt institutions the fun stops at "there's no money".
I guess the situation comes down to assets at that point, tanks, planes, boats.... but, then, those are kinda being blown up, so, I dunno, Russia lol.
Russia failed in forcing the trading partners to switch to rubel, but the Russian companies are forced to convert earnings into rubel. At the same time most big export companies in Russia are government owned(Gazprom, Rosneft and other resource exporters). So this way the Russian government gets more money, but it increases inflation.
US announced new sanctions on Gazprombank. The free-fall is fear Russia will be unable to collect revenues for exported gas, which is a huge swathe of their GDP.
The value of the ruble. It's right there in the graph.