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I used to have literally zero conspiracy theory tendencies. It's just that nothing seems completely implausible, anymore.
(lemmynsfw.com)
I don't think any of us will ever feel normal again. It's so exhausting. I just want to go back to, like, 2009 so fucking badly.
The thing is, a seismic weapon would be China's wet dream. A capability to attack Taiwan with plausible deniability, especially given that an amphibious assault would be hard pressed to make land without massive casualties.
As you said, crazy in ~2010, maybe not that crazy in 2024...
To be honest, what does China have to gain? They are destroying the very "province" they seek to reunify? If they don't claim responsibility, I don't see how that brings them closer to claiming the island.
It would make sense if China were to use it against the US though. To stoke "America first" Republicans and make the US withdraw from geopolitical positions.
Playing devil's advocate: they wouldn't, as you said US would be main target for such a weapon.
But weapons in development need testing...
Consider the physics of it, a seismic event of a sufficient scale as to be a useful weapon would represent a colossal release of energy. Where would that energy come from?