Technology

it's just a moving average cross. 50 day MA moves below 200 MA, that's it. Can be a bearish sign but I've seen it bounce in this moment a bunch of times.

But technical analsyis is just drawing imaginary lines on a chart, they know nothing about how stupid Trump and Musk are so it might very well be bearish. At least I hope so. I want to see him get margin called at 114$ or so they say.

Yup. It's back to roughly October levels, like the rest of the S&P 500.

Yeah, it's absurd.

• The CEO is nearly universally reviled.
• They have the worst build quality of any vehicles sold in the USA.
• They are notoriously unsafe.
• They had to stop selling Cybertrucks because they had 8 recalls in a row and are literally held together with glue
• They were just hit with the most expensive recall of all time on their self driving bullshit.
• They are underwater in Europe & China.
• I probably have forgotten something.

The earnings call on the 22nd should be very interesting.

Stop the sale of carbon credits and you'll really see the stock dip.

astrology for guys in suits

Naw they already made that, it's called the "Myers-Briggs Type Indicator".

As someone with an actual Econ degree:

... Yeah, a whole lot of 'technical signals' aka, chart reading that a lot of 'retail' (ie, amateur) day traders use... is basically astrology.

Its not quite as absolutely nonsensical as astrology, which is just absolutely 100% bullshit... like, a 50 MA crossing a 200 MA downward... definitely does indicate that stock is not having a great time right now... but as far as the "power" of such a signal to reliably indicate future trends?

No, basically no. There are some technical indicators that have a slightly higher correlation coefficient of being a reliable leading indicator, but the correlations are not really that strong... there are just way too many other confounding variables.

...

Even the quants who work for hedge funds... who use some of the most advanced and complex mathematical models in the world to try to untangle all of those confounding effects....

...well, they are on average, over a decently long timescale, no better, or even slightly worse than random chance at picking stocks, bonds, a portfolio that will grow more than just the average.

Part of this is because... if a technical trading strategy that actually works to generate outsized gains... is actually figured out by one of the big boy quants... the other big boy quants will notice this and reverse engineer it from analyzing what their rival is doing.

Then, once all the big boys are using the same strategy... well now it doesn't return outsized gains anymore.

... Which is why all your 401ks are basically index funds for their stock component, which is just a weighted average basket of whichever particular market, usually the DJIA or SP500 as the Nasdaq is historically a bit more volatile.

...

Now, all that being said... one arguably 'technical indicator' that always has been correct in the last 100 years... is when the bond yield curve inverts... the economy and stock market generally suffer a downturn roughly proportional to the time and magnitude of the bond yield curve inversion... soon after or right as the bond yield curve uninverts.

Except for right now, the last few years.

We have now, in the last 4 or 5 years, had 3 periods of yield curve inversion, 2 uninversions... and the broader economy has technically not yet entered into a recession, a period of negative GDP growth.

But it looks like we are heading now for basically something akin to the Great Depression, as the latest inversion is pretty widely being interpreted as 'investors no longer see the US Bonds as the defacto save haven, the USD as the defacto world currency'... which means the dollar will devalue as demand for it goes down... which means even if the tariffs went away and never came back, all our imports would be more expensive... and our exports won't be worth as much... and our external debt to other countries will become even more onerous...

And we are kind of massively reliant on importing material things and exporting services or non physical 'products'.

(Great work Mr. Trump -.-)

So... yeah you can't really make a day trading strategy out of that.

...

Beyond all that, its probably also worth mentioning that GDP per capita is not a reliable measure of actual wellbeing of the population of a country when it has enormous wealth disparity.

To a large extent it is, the major difference being that when people take actions based of these signs, it influences which way the chart goes next, unlike the planets, which do not care the slightest what people do based on their actions. Thus you can end up making a lot of money if your actions are 1) correctly anticipating subsequent actions by other people and 2) sufficiently in advance of other actions. Which makes inside trading and pump-and-dump schemes great ways to get filthy rich, if you find yourself in a position to be able to pull that off. Or if you are lucky. Or if you have made a name for yourself and everyone else just assume you know what you are doing and follows (Warren Buffet comes to mind).

There is only so much they can do to prop it up. If noone is buying them, and noone wants the stock, its going to go down short of the govt literally buying the stock and handing it over to musk.

That unfortunately would not surprise me. How sad.

That's fine, let's still take down Tesla for good measure

No, he cares for Twitter.

SpaceX lets him pretend he's some great tech genius, but Twitter is what gives him the validation he craves. All the pro-Elon bots and stans there who fellate him feed his narcissistic desire to be loved.

That's why he "sold" Twitter to xAI. So if Tesla does tank hard enough and he gets margin called, he can't be forced to sell Twitter to cover it.

That's a testable hypothesis: burn Tesla, Twitter, SpaceX etc to the ground. We can measure his reaction to each, and compare.

It could go to zero and it wouldn't affect him.

He leveraged his Tesla stock to buy Twitter. If the stock drops below a certain price, the banks will confiscate the stock. If it's not enough to cover, they'll confiscate Twitter.

But maybe I'm wrong. I would love to find out either way.

Tesla means nothing to Elon.

Then why did he ask Trump to shill Teslas for him? He definitely cares, for narcissistic ego reasons if not financial ones.

Not exactly I’m pretty sure he’s using his stocks as collateral for lots of stuff.

I hear what you are saying, but I still like to see Nazis hurt.

Let’s make Tesla a penny stock.

If the stock really tanks (I've heard the magic number is $114) his loans get called & he likely has to sell xAI or SpaceX to cover.

Except, to buy it out, he has to first pay the creditors for the value, because he used that as collateral to buy Twitter.

That's not how any of this works.

That's great, now you get to deliver the finishing blow

But if they specifically call out Tesla, they get more clickbait engagement, plus it now qualifies as a tech story! Double win!