Zaktor

joined 2 years ago
[–] Zaktor@sopuli.xyz 8 points 5 days ago

How come our centrists become household names for all the times they fuck the party over while their's are people I've never heard of before?

[–] Zaktor@sopuli.xyz 13 points 5 days ago

And this is the issue that was worth having a meltdown over. Not any of the kidnapping, not Trump's tariffs and market manipulation, not Adams' corruption or Cuomo's COVID scandals. Their utter silence on everything else makes their current freak out transparently hollow. None of them are worried about NYC, they're worried about the idea of the uberwealthy getting taxed to make life better for everyone else catching on.

[–] Zaktor@sopuli.xyz 14 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago) (1 children)

Holy crap, zero percent?? There was some iffy "not enough black support" conversations going on during 2020 that were warped by just how much black support Biden was getting, but you really should be getting more than zero.

[–] Zaktor@sopuli.xyz 2 points 6 days ago

It's shocking how much we had all just internalized seeing plastic bag litter. Our ban really did have a noticeable effect on the trash lying around. It's not just an invisible benefit "for the planet".

[–] Zaktor@sopuli.xyz 2 points 6 days ago

There's no real solution for selection bias if you don't have other respondents of that group. With something like race or education, you have their demographics and can upsample those that do respond. But it the group is specifically defined by not wanting to respond to polls and that comes with biases to the poll questions, you don't have anything to upsample.

Now whether such a group is really a distinct entity out there that can't be kind of approximated by people who share other traits is the question. If white conservatives have a spectrum of trust in pollsters and the non-responders would just answer questions the same you're fine. But it those with low trust are also more anti-vax or some sort of distinct population like an insular community, you couldn't just approximate them with people who did respond.

[–] Zaktor@sopuli.xyz 3 points 6 days ago

I do wonder whether the story here is that the non-voting population largely mirrors the popular vote. This was the first time in their survey the Republican won the popular vote and the first time their non-voting respondents went toward the Republican candidate.

Which isn't entirely surprising, as both that's probably driving the vibes and many non-voters are not apolitical, but just don't vote because their elections are not competitive.

[–] Zaktor@sopuli.xyz 3 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago)

Swing voters are not really the sole political deciders. They matter extra because they effectively count as two votes, but base turnout is often a larger effect than the actual swing voters.

About 15% of Biden's voters did not vote, 5% switched to Trump and 1% voted for someone else. That's compared to 11% of 2020 Trump voters, who sat it out, 3% who switched to Harris and 1% who went for someone else.

So of 2020 voters, Harris lost a net 4% to the couch and 2% to switching. You can count the switchers twice because they were a lost vote for Harris and a gained vote for Trump, so that's basically a wash. Trump then won a net 1% of people who didn't vote in 2020 (which coincidentally is roughly the same size as an individual candidate's 2020 voters). So doing better with any of those groups could have swung the election.

[–] Zaktor@sopuli.xyz 2 points 1 week ago (1 children)

The study you reference was created by a market research firm who didn't share their data and paid for by plastic lobbyists. They measured projected use only into the first year of implementation when people were understandably buying reusable bags to comply. They took that surge in buying reusable bags as indication of long term demand and then assumed 90% of bags don't get reused, which contradicts other research done by real researchers.

https://whyy.org/articles/new-jersey-plastic-bag-ban-study-misinformation/

[–] Zaktor@sopuli.xyz 5 points 1 week ago

I'm in one of these bagless wastelands. We use bags from the groceries themselves. Many of the products we buy are also in some form of closeable plastic and just get put into a second piece of plastic for the short trip home.

[–] Zaktor@sopuli.xyz 0 points 1 week ago

There's a reason I only commented on the "carry bags throughout the store?!? not me" position. That's the one that outs you as unusually unwilling accept even the most trivial of inconveniences. That you even include that in your justification speaks volumes about your personality.

[–] Zaktor@sopuli.xyz 0 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (2 children)

I dunno not being willing to even carry bags, things that are literally made for carrying, kinda seems like a you problem rather than a first world problem. Like there's the regular biases toward convenience we all have and there's Jesus fucking Christ how are you this incapable of tolerating the most minor of tasks.

You know how you handle the onerous task of carrying a bag while shopping? You put the bags in the basket with everything else, put the food in the bags themselves, or just loop the handle over your shoulder.

[–] Zaktor@sopuli.xyz 3 points 1 week ago

Honestly, there's probably a lot of people actually working these shorter weeks to get their productive work done but just being forced to sit at a desk for the full 40. Office Space's "15 minutes of real work each day" didn't come from no where.

 

Harris only received five percent of Republican votes — less than the six percent Joe Biden won in 2020 when he beat Trump, as well as the seven percent won by Hillary Clinton in 2016 when she lost to him. While Harris won independents and moderates, she did so by smaller margins than Biden did in 2020.

Meanwhile, Harris lost households earning under $100,000, while Democratic turnout collapsed. Votes are still being counted, but Harris is on pace to underperform Biden’s 2020 totals by millions of votes.

 

The editors of Israel's oldest newspaper on Wednesday published an editorial decrying the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians from northern Gaza amid a ferocious Israeli offensive there that's killed more than 1,000 people over the past three weeks.

Original paywalled editorial in Haaretz.

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