Thanks for the explanation. Didn't realize Bluesky/AT is more like a fedi-washed version of ActivityPub rather than a real alternative ...
I'm not sure; on the one hand, I think the fact that federation has become a unique selling point in micro-blogging is indicating a positive trend; so even if people join Bluesky its good for the Fediverse. On the other hand, if federated just becomes another buzz word that means nothing at all, while places where the real innovation is happening are drowned out, the window of opportunity could just close.
I think thats unlikely. If the fediverse wants it or not, its growth is now heavily dependent on Meta