156
Bill Gates feels Generative AI has plateaued, says GPT-5 will not be any better
(indianexpress.com)
this post was submitted on 02 Dec 2023
156 points (85.1% liked)
Technology
57418 readers
4806 users here now
This is a most excellent place for technology news and articles.
Our Rules
- Follow the lemmy.world rules.
- Only tech related content.
- Be excellent to each another!
- Mod approved content bots can post up to 10 articles per day.
- Threads asking for personal tech support may be deleted.
- Politics threads may be removed.
- No memes allowed as posts, OK to post as comments.
- Only approved bots from the list below, to ask if your bot can be added please contact us.
- Check for duplicates before posting, duplicates may be removed
Approved Bots
founded 1 year ago
MODERATORS
Maybe, but I am sure the tools the AIs can use will improve making the AIs jobs easier and thus the AI more efficient. I hope he is right tbh.
Eww, as a long time Linux user I need to take a shower now. I feel dirty.
The next big steps coming right now are AI trained on generative data and agents that act more automatically (rather than waiting for a prompt, take an action like searching the web and act on that to better complete the goal for example), and better indexed data so generated data can be informed by and cite sources in the moment.
AI trained on generative data
This has already been shown to degrade the output very quickly.
I think the wall that generative AI is hitting is the lack of more training data. All the web has been scraped to get it to where it is today, more and more content on the web is itself generated by AI and therefore not only useless but harmful if used as training data.
load more comments
(1 replies)
I think he could be right about generative AI, but that's not a serious problem given we're moving beyond generative AI and into virtual intelligence territory.
Generative ai right now requires someone (or something) to initiate it with a prompt, but according to some of the latest research papers in OpenAI as well as the drama that happened recently surrounding the leadership, it appears that we're moving beyond the 'generative' phase into the 'virtual intelligence' phase.
It's not going to be 'smart' it will be knowledgeable (and accurate, hopefully). That is to say VI's will be useful as data retrieval or organization but not necessarily data creation (although IIRC the way to get around this would be to develop a VI that specifically only works on creating ideas but we'd be moving into AGI territory and I don't expect we'll have serious contenders for AGI for another decade at least).
The rumours abound surrounding the OpenAI drama, the key one being the potential for accidentally developing AGI internally (I doubt this heavily). The more likely reason is that the board of directors had a financial stake in Nvidia and when they found out altman was working on chips specifically for AI that were faster, lower cost, and lower power consumption than current nvidia trash (by literally tens of thousands of dollars), they fired him to try and force the company onto their preferred track (and profit in the process, which IMO, kind of ironic that a non-profit board of directors has so many 'closed door' discussions with nvidia staff...)
This is just the thoughts of a comp-sci student with a focus on artificial intelligence systems.
If interested in further reading:
https://www.ibm.com/blog/understanding-the-different-types-of-artificial-intelligence/
https://digitalreality.ieee.org/publications/virtual-intelligence-vs-artificial-intelligence
Keep in mind that because it's still early days in this field that a lot of terms haven't reached an established consensus across academia yet, so you'll notice variations in how each organization explains what "x" type of intelligence is.
Bill, you're not even AT Microsoft anymore.
Edit: AND, you think a box of Pizza Rolls cost nearly 3 times as much as they actually do. I'm not trusting your opinion, man
Why does him being rich mean that his opinion on LLMs is invalid? If anything, LLMs require such vast amounts of money that he has more experience in that area because of his riches, not less.
And the Wright Brothers said heavier than air flight would only ever be an amusement for the rich, and never commercially viable.
Even taking Gates' qualifications at face value doesn't mean he's actually right.
load more comments
(5 replies)
Since I started using AI in March, it has not stop getting better and better with it seemingly accelerating not decelerating. If we are heading to a plateau, there are no signs of it yet. I am sure there will be plateaus, and maybe we have even had one earlier this year, but with the speed of AI development, it may mean a plateau of months versus the normal years. We will see. Bill has been saying a lot of things these past years that make no sense, unless you look at it from a money/market manipulation perspective.