How bad would an eruption be on a local, country and global scale? With the amount of news surrounding this, it makes it sound like a super volcano is about to erupt. At the same time however, I'd think a super volcano would be way more disasterous than a basic evacuation would handle.
this post was submitted on 13 Nov 2023
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Depends on the size of the eruption. We have seen anything from local disturbances to European and some intercontinental air traffic being disrupted for more than a week because of giant clouds of ash in the past.
Going by what experts expect this time, it will probaby not have much impact beyond Iceland but unlike in the last few years the location includes populated areas this time so at least some evacuation of people living there is going on.
A similar series of eruptions happened in 2010. It’s bad, but not apocalyptic. Planes were diverted because of ash clouds for a bit, and IIRC a few people who didn’t heed the ample warnings died.
This should be like that.
e: hopefully nobody will be belligerent enough to ignore the warnings.
e2: from that article: ‘No human fatalities were reported from the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull’, thank goodness. I must have mixed it up with a different eruption. It seems like Iceland no longer fucks about with Mother Earth. I did read all nearby towns have been evacuated already.
So yeah, expect a light show and some short-term air travel disruptions in the northern hemisphere as the wind blows.
Last time it happened it grounded almost all European air traffic for a week or two. So probably about the same I guess.
That wasn't the last time. There was an eruption in 2021 that continued to 2022 in this same peninsula where they're expecting a new eruption, which was much tamer. Open lava flow but no billowing clouds across the continent.
It appears that there is still underground lava flow across the peninsula from that eruption, so it is likely a further eruption in the same system.
Right this is the one where people where cooking right on the lava, I remember that.
It all depends on the size and strength of the eruption. The Reykjarnes peninsula is relatively important, as it is home to Keflavik Airport on the north west tip, which is the main one serving the island and nearby capital Reykjavik. There is a cluster of towns around there and then Grindavik on the south side. However, the rest of the peninsula is mostly barren with volcanic rock fields (apart from the famous geothermal spa the Blue Lagoon somewhere in the middle and the power plant that provides its famous blue hot springs).
It so happens that this same area has seen eruptions in each of the last 2 years and apparently has a 10km stretch of underground lava flow still from that. I'm unsure if this implies it will be more or less impact full this time.
It appears that readings are centred on Grindavik. There's already been some road damage and land slippages there.
This will likely be completely ignorable by people outside of Iceland:
PSA: The pending Iceland eruption will not produce a colossal and long-lived ash cloud like the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull – you need an erupting into a glacier or ice sheet for that with this sort of magma – and it will have NO EFFECT ON THE CLIMATE WHATSOEVER.
It would be disastrous for my vacation if Europe gets ashed and my flight cancelled😞
You’re getting downvotes, but the implication that transatlantic tourism will grind to a halt is a big deal, and very real. For Iceland it’s an even bigger concern as so much of their economy depends on tourism (though this is the slow season).
One thing I haven’t heard mentioned is the Icelandic water spring source. It’s a big ($2B+) operation and (supposedly) located on that peninsula. I looked for it but could only find the operational/business headquarters.
Also in the area is a major geothermal power plant and the big carbon capture plant which gets it power from it. Research and market development could be seriously set back if it's damaged.
big carbon capture plant
I didn't realize they had one, or even cared that much about it (since their power sources are something like 99.9x carbon free). I knew there was a research site that was doing deep drilling on the peninsula, but not the purpose.
Makes sense to do the power hungry and experimental research into carbon reduction next to a cheap and carbon free energy source though
This is the best summary I could come up with:
Iceland’s prime minister has sought to reassure the nation as it braces for a volcanic eruption and the Reykjanes peninsula continues to be hit by hundreds of earthquakes.
Lying between the Eurasian and North American tectonic plates – which move in opposite directions – Iceland is a global hotspot for seismic and volcanic activity.
Although the size and intensity of the activity was decreasing, the met office said the volcanic hazard assessment remained unchanged, with the country in a state of emergency.
Huge queues, several kilometres long, formed as residents of the fishing town were briefly allowed to return to their homes to collect necessities and belongings.
In a speech in the Icelandic parliament, Katrín Jakobsdóttir said Friday’s evacuation of the town was done “with the safety of the residents in mind” but shared her sympathy with those forced to leave their homes.
They added: “The natural hazards monitoring team at IMO is operating at maximum surveillance while the department of civil protection and emergency management coordinates short-term, temporary access to Grindavík today, 13 November.”
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Ragnarök awaits.