Asklemmy

Years ago I tried my hand gambling on politics on PredictIt, and I didn't lose all that much, but there were a couple bets I lost that seemed like sure things. Mostly the lesson I learned is that talk is cheap and there's no real consequences for people saying one thing and doing the other.

For example, in the 2016 election, there was a market on whether no-name Carly Fiona would qualify for the CNN debate, and by the rules they set she didn't qualify, but there hadn't been as many polls in the right timeframe as had been expected. Still, they released a statement days before the debate, saying "rules are rules," so I took a bet at like 90% odds thinking it was completely safe - then they let her in at the last minute and I lost big. I don't remember the exact circumstances, but I think I lost a fair bit on a market about Trump meeting with Kim Jong Un, which was a pretty chaotic market. The most chaotic market I ever saw, which I avoided and wanted no part of, was whether Bernie would win Iowa in 2020, and watching it closely in real time made it very obvious that some really shady stuff was going on. Probably the most I ever lost was Biden winning the 2020 primary, which is about when I got out of it.

I would not recommend gambling like that because if you have money on the line there's an incentive to be glued to the news in a way that can be really unhealthy. Honestly the stress was worse than the money I lost. It's more trouble than it's worth, the fees will get you, also it's generally more about predicting what the market will think so you can profit off the swings, and personally I think it's kind of a distasteful way to engage in politics. At the same time, it can be a learning experience - it definitely got me in the habit of asking "And what consequences will this person face if they're lying off their ass?" every time I see a headline about someone saying something, and of not paying as much attention to statements in general.