this post was submitted on 29 Apr 2025
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Seems pretty clear that we are heading into an alliance between the Liberals and the Bloc. They align pretty well on issues outside of Quebec.
If the Liberals allow their Quebec ridings to support Quebec issues that the Bloc cares about, the Bloc will probably continue to support the Liberals more generally.
Unless the Bloc joins a non-confidence against the Liberals, the Liberals can effectively govern as if they had a majority.
And it will take 3 parties to gang up on the libs to force non-confidence. That means BOTH the NDP and the Bloc joining with the Conservatives. How likely does that seem? Even the Conservatives and Bloc together do not have the votes. The NDP sure doesn’t.
As of now, the Liberals only need 3 votes from outside the party on any given issue. On most issues, they should have little trouble overcoming the Conservative opposition.