this post was submitted on 31 Dec 2024
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The fear of feedback loops is reasonable, but may not be inevitable. The reason complex life exists on this planet, in part, is that the biosphere evolved to prevent runaway climate change. As the life forms grew more varied and complex, the tools for maintaining a viable atmosphere also increased. So the Precambrian extinctions are attributed to changes that extremely primitive life forms couldn't adapt to. Once life moved onto land, and trees, grasses, and flowers evolved, the number of ways for life to adapt went way up.
It should say something that the most recent mass extinction event (I mean, before the anthropocene), was caused by a giant asteroid and a decade(s?)-long winter, rather than a change in solar luminosity or runaway GHG shift.
With the advent of humans, this planet now has tools available for GHG and solar radiation management (SRM) that were unthinkable by nature. SRM with sulfur dioxide and air capture of CO₂ allow for the rapid reshaping of the climate almost as fast as fossil fuel combustion. As a result, the tools to stabilize the climate are available and their use is inevitable. The longer we wait to use them, the worse the problem gets and the more people are harmed, but given the unheard-of capacities that we've developed to stave off runaway global warming, I do not believe that humanity will choose extinction over GHG management and SRM.
Most of these thoughts come from Gaian Bottleneck Theory, which you can read more about here. You may be right, but I'm hoping you are wrong (no offense).
That's where we disagree. We've known for decades what kinds of things we should be doing to mitigate climate damage. We choose not to, cuz as a species we're greedy, evil, and fucking stupid. We'll put it off 'till tomorrow to live a more comfortable today until it's too late. We might whip out the fire extinguisher some day, but we'll be spraying it at ashes.
I'm hoping I'm wrong too. ...but to say I have no faith in humanity would be beating a dusty crater that used to be the site of a dead horse. I really don't think we have it in us to actually make the changes that need to be happening NOW.
I just hope we don't fuck the planet so hard that it stops some other critter from rising from the ashes to become a dominant species that isn't a dickhead like us.
While my government threw money at coal generators and lied about wind and solar, wind and solar adoption skyrocketed and coal plants became bad investments. Even when governments don't help, even when government is opposed people take action. And governments will change, especially with the effects of more energy driving bigger weather
No one has deployed an effective green house gas (GHG) direct air capture system yet, but there are plans that are likely to work and we will beat GHG by the end of this century for sure - there are so many people dedicated to making sure that happens and only a handful of enormous companies opposing, and even they are diversifying their holdings away from fossil fuels