this post was submitted on 02 Dec 2024
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a condo just isn't worth a million. Bring on the crash!
I have been saying this for at least 15 years: the condo market and the home market shouldn't be the same market.
I live in Toronto, but this applies to every large already developed city:
There will never be more single family homes in Toronto than there are today AND There will never be fewer condos in Toronto than there are today
So how are those two asset types tied so closely?
I thought it was gonna happen 5-10 years ago, where condos would crash down to 20-40% of the value of a comparable home (which I know is hard as condos are so friggin small) but so far... Nothing? The only reason some condos are cheaper is because you can't buy a studio house with no backyard or parking...
For 1 bd condos specifically prices did go down, because developers overshot the supply aiming for investors. But larger units are still very much underserved and there's too much demand.
Houses aren't expensive just because they're houses. They're expensive mostly because there's a big plot of land underneath, land that eventually will be required for a big tower that will sell like hot cakes. It's the same market because Canada has a market of land speculation.
I was talking to my fiance about this, I'm about to graduate from my program and both of us can work anywhere there is a hospital. We were looking into houses or condos in the GTA but its just stupid expensive. I joked about bailing on canada entirely and just packing up/moving and that quickly went from a joke to our top option. I can't believe its gotten so unbelievably to hard to live here, whats the point in staying?
I wasn't really talking about affordability over all, which won't get better while governments allow corporations and "mom and pop" to buy and hold hostage the housing supply. But if reality were to actually affect the market, condos would crash hard, which maybe would help a bit with affordability?
But yeah, I wouldn't live in Toronto either if my industry didn't pay so well (film and TV production). It's wack.