this post was submitted on 18 Nov 2024
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No they won't, Reddit killed Internet Forums, Threads has over 200 million active monthly users, and BlueSky already has double the number of users of Mastadon and is adding 10 new ones PER SECOND . Mastadon will be entirely irrelevant by the end of Q1 2025.
What we're watching right now is the exact same fight that the chat platforms had back in the early 2000s. AOL chat vs IRC vs Yahoo Chat vs Microsoft Messenger. That was temporarily addressed by using multi-service clients like Trillian...and then Facebook rolled in and squashed them all. BTW there are several multi-platform clients out there right now that will allow you to interact with Xitter, Threads, BlueSky, and Mastadon simultaneously just like the Trillian of old.
I've been around the Internet since the BBS days and I can't think of a single time where a de-centralized platform has out competed a centralized platform with "normal" users.
There's a lot you aren't taking into consideration, for example where those users are coming from.
The fact that we're here, right now, discussing this on the fediverse, shows that ActivityPub has come a long way. Bluesky is nothing more than a shallow copy of Mastodon with far less federation and far fewer features.
Mastodon is a bit like Linux, due to its free and open nature. It can be in 3rd place for 20 years, but it'll keep chugging along, improving and growing over time until it snowballs into something truly formidable. Linux doesn't need to be the most popular operating system ecosystem to be great, nor does Mastodon need to be the most popular social media server. Unlike a corporate product it's not just going to die and disappear just because it isn't the most popular of the social media platforms.
I'm right there with you. I'd love to see the dream of the decentralized media return, but it's long-dead. The "Normal" user doesn't give a fuck about the benefits and even the moderate barrier to entry over some centralized platform is enough to keep them away.
Tech-minded people seem to often forget that even the most simplistic choices like "Choose an instance" is a big deal for people. The platform that's the most familiar, and easiest to use is going to be the one that wins, and, right now, that looks like it's Bluesky.
It's not even "chose an instance". This is what my journey has been:
Now try to get your non tech friends on board.
IRC was king for a while but then it rotted and nobody repaired it