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Trump was pretty ineffective in his first term, largely because he did a terrible job of supporting people who really agreed with his agenda, and an even worse job of removing people from influential positions who didn't.
He said during his campaign that he knew much better who to trust, but now he's got Elon Musk and RFK Jr. prominently featured. I don't think he has learned anything, and I think he will be just as ineffective this time.
It's possible that some of the Republicans in Congress will support more of his agenda, but even there if they have to overcome the filibuster, I don't think mass deportation, a federal abortion ban, or most of the rest of the potential worst of it is in the cards.
I reckon that in all likelihood the Project 2025 folks will piss him off at some point and he'll just throw a tantrum and refuse to work with them. Doesn't mean he'll suddenly turn into a leftist, but if he doesn't play ball, they'll have trouble getting anything passed.
They'll kill off the filibuster as soon as it gets in their way. They don't care about tradition or institutional continuity. And anyway, the Democrats seldom resort to the filibuster, they just bend over.
Trump and Musk will have a power struggle within a few months. Trump hates the idea that someone's richer than him, and will want to humiliate him. Trump will dump RFK Jr too, as soon as Jr gets more publicity than Trump. What will be semi-permanent are the careerist shitstains like the Speaker, the God-botherers with their crusade against women, and the anti-immigrant scum.