this post was submitted on 23 Aug 2023
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NASA still haven't really got their SLS or any other launch system up and running, just SpaceX with Crew Dragon. SLS is in the pipeline but not yet certified for people - the first crewed launch is currently scheduled for Nov 2024, however that date may well slide. That leaves just SpaceX as an alternative to Russia, at least for crewed missions.
More recently the reliability of Russian rockets has been called into question. SpaceX launch far more than Russia now and with SpaceX it's pretty much become routine. Excluding Starship, SpaceX haven't had a launch failure since 2016. Meanwhile, Russia have their own distractions going on here on Earth.
Space is hard, but achieving orbits is on the easier end of it and should be fairly routine. Russia have experience landing on the moon in the past, however by their own admission that experience wasn't available in the recent mission. Obviously we don't know exactly what went wrong with Russia's attempt, but it is a little concerning they failed at such a small hurdle.