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My CTO thoroughly believes that within 4-6 years we will no longer need to know how to read or write code, just how to ask an AI to do it. Coincidentally, he also doesn't code anymore and hasn't for over 15 years.
From a business perspective, no shareholder cares at how good an employee is at personally achieving a high degree of skill. They only care about selling and earning, and to a lesser degree an enduring reputation for longer term earnings.
Economics could very well drive this forward. But I don't think the craft will be lost. People will need to supervise this progress as well as collaborate with the machines to extend its capabilities and dictate its purposes.
I couldn't tell you if we're talking on a time scale of months or decades, but I do think "we" will get there.
Hackers and hobbiests will persist despite any economics. Much of what they do I don't see AI replacing, as AI creates based off of what it "knows", which is mostly things it has previously ingested.
We are not (yet?) at the point where LLM does anything other than put together code snippets it's seen or derived. If you ask it to find a new attack vector or code dissimilar to something it's seen before the results are poor.
But the counterpoint every developer needs to keep in mind: AI will only get better. It's not going to lose any of the current capabilities to generate code, and very likely will continue to expand on what it can accomplish. It'd be naive to assume it can never achieve these new capabilities... The question is just when & how much it costs (in terms of processing and storage).
Agree, and the point I always want to make is that any LLM or neural net or any other AI tech is going to be a mere component in a powerful product, rather than the entirety of the product.
The way I think of it is that my brain is of little value without my body, and my person is of little value without my team at work. I don't exist in a vacuum but I can be highly productive within my environment.
I think he's correct and there's a ton of cope going on on lemmy right now. I also think tons of art/graphic design jobs will disappear never to return.