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The problem is empirical data cannot be morally or ethically found. You can't show a bunch of people porn and then make a statistical observation of whether those shown child porn are more likely to assault children. So we have to go forward without that data.
I will anecdotally observe anal sex, oral sex, and facials have gone up between partners as prevalence in porn has gone up. That suggests but does not prove a direct statistical harm caused by even "ethically produced CSAM."
Can we look at trends between consenting adults (who are likely watching porn of real people by the way) as an indicator of what pedophiles will do? I'm not so sure. It's not like step sibling sex is suddenly through the roof now with it being the "trend" in porn.
Looking specifically at fake rape porn maybe and seeing if it increases rates of rape in the real world might be a better indicator.
That's fair. I tried to make clear that my interpretation is not in any way scientific or authoritative. Better correlations are probably possible.
ETA on further thought: I wonder if prevalence of incest porn has had an effect on actual incest rates. That might be a much closer correlation due to the similar social taboo. But I'm not sure we have good data on that, either.
Do you think people like Andrew Tate have caused more rapes to occur? Like do you think his rhetoric encourages a rapist mindset in his listeners?
True, it wouldn't be ethical to conduct an experiment, but we can (and probably do) collect lots of observational data that can provide meaningful insight. People are arrested at all stages of CSAM related offenses from just possession, distribution, solicitation, and active abuse.
While observation and correlations are inherently weaker than experimental data, they can at least provide some insight. For example, "what percentage of those only in possession of artificially generated CSAM for at least one year go on to solicit minors" vs. "real" CSAM.
If it seems that artificial CSAM is associated with a lower rate of solicitation, or if it ends up decreasing overall demand for "real" CSAM, then keeping it legal might provide a real net benefit to society and its most vulnerable even if it's pretty icky.
That said, I have a nagging suspicion that the thing many abusers like most about CSAM is that it's a real person and that the artificial stuff won't do it for them at all. There's also the risk that artificial CSAM reduces the taboo of CSAM and can be an on-ramp to more harmful materials for those with pedophilic tendencies that they otherwise are able to suppress. But it's still way too early to know either way.
Perhaps. But what about when they can't tell the difference between real and virtual? It seems like the allure of all pornography is the fantasy, rather than the reality. That is, you may enjoy extreme BDSM pornography, and enjoy seeing a person flogged until they're bleeding, or see needles slowly forced through their penis, but do you really care that it's a real person that's going to end the scene, take a shower, and go watch a few episodes of "The Good Place" with their dog before bed? Or is it about the power fantasy that you're constructing in your head about that scene? How important is the reality of the scene, versus being able to suspend your disbelief long enough to get sexual gratification from it? If the whole scene was done with really good practical effects and CG, would your experience, as a user--even if you were aware--be different?
I think it would be ethical for researchers to go onto the boards of these already-existing CP distribution forums and conduct surveys. But then the surveyors would be morally obligated to report that board to the authorities to get it shut down. Which means that no one would ever answer surveyor questions because they knew the board would be shut down soon so they'd just find a new site ugh...
Yeah nvm I don't see any way around this one