this post was submitted on 15 Aug 2024
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I'll be honest, at this point it's no longer clear what purpose the hostages are serving anyway. The Israeli government is not negotiating for their return in good faith, and they haven't deterred the wholesale glassing of the Gaza strip. There is seemingly no legitimate interest in getting the hostages back alive. Even if you consider the token Israeli "protests" being organized, most of those people aren't actually demanding an end to the war. It's fairly obvious the hostages are no longer serving as useful bargaining chips (if they ever were). I can't say I really blame this guy.
In fact, one may even argue this was an act of mercy compared to the alternative of being indefinitely held prisoner in presumably pretty poor conditions, just waiting to be murdered by the IDF.
Were there no hostages Israel would never agree to a ceasefire. They would claim they need to eradicate Hamas no matter the cost. The massive demonstrations for a ceasefire inside of Israel are to get the hostages out. Not because they care for Palestinians.
So... you mean like how things are already? That's the exact point I'm making, lmao.
No shit. But what good is a "ceasefire" if it doesn't actually end the war? Hamas has no incentive to agree to hand over hostages if Israel is just going to resume bombing the shit out of Gaza as soon as they've been released, which is what most of the demonstrators actually want.
Yes but also no. The current conditions are largely the same but that is because no deal has yet been made.
With the hostages Hamas can demand things from a deal. Like the IDF permanently withdrawing from Gaza and releasing their Palestinian hostages. Without hostages there would be no way for Hamas to have any demands.
Hamas still holding the hostages is also physical hard evidence for the world to see how incapable the IDF is in achieving its stated objective of retrieving the hostages.
Furthermore the reason Israelis are demonstrating for a ceasefire is because of the hostages. It causes division and turmoil within Israel.
The hostages are the leverage Hamas have in a deal. Without them they have no leverage.
We will have to agree to disagree, I think.
You seem to be under the false assumption that the Israeli government actually cares about bringing any of the hostages home safely, when it's pretty obvious they don't. Their actions have shown this very clearly. The hostages can't be useful leverage if Israel doesn't give a shit about them in the first place.
Given that Israel's current governmental coalition is predicated on the continuation of the war, along with Bibi's own impending legal peril once he is forced out of his position, why would you think they would ever agree to any kind of deal? It's pretty obvious to anyone paying attention that all these elusive "ceasefire negotiations" Israel has "participated" in, have been in bad faith the entire time. They literally assassinated Hamas' own lead negotiator! It's merely a carrot they can wave around to convince the western audience to keep supporting them, "See? A ceasefire deal is just around the corner so keep those weapons and money flowing!"
This so called "division and turmoil" caused by the demonstrations sounds great and all, but it's ultimately inconsequential and amounts to less than nothing unless they plan on putting an end to the current regime.
You have not kept up to date on Israel's statements on this. Israel wasn't even willing to commit to continuing the cease-fire after the hostages were released, let alone pull out for good.
Part of me thinks it's propaganda not bargaining power. On several occasions the IDF has dropped bombs on or shot the hostages ~~accidentaly~~ wontonly. The message Hamas is maybe trying to send is that the IDF doesn't care about saving the hostages. The IDF just want to eradicate the Palestinians. Then again I'm halfway around the world so what do I really know?
For what it's worth, I tend to agree with you. It's definitely about the propaganda value and the perceived "moral high ground", but the real question is how much are those things actually worth in the current state of the conflict. At least in my view, sadly very little.