In 2022 it also just happened that russia was hosting possibly the largest military excercise in recent memory right on Ukraine's border when the situation turned too menacing. Good they happened to have all those cruise missiles ready as if they hadn't acted, russia would have been wiped out or something...

Occam's razor cuts well on the two "possible" viewpoints of this war.

First is that big country sees an opportunity to capture land from a smaller one. In multiple stages between 2014 and 2022. A very limited amount of assumptions that can explain what is happening...

Second presumes that all the occupied areas secretly wanted to be a part of russia, nato is threatening russian territory while not being present, non affiliated soldiers with russian (but not russian) equipment occupy areas, a jewish president turns out to be in charge of a genocidial nazi regime that just has to be replaced with a peaceful one, and finally all of this is best achieved by a 3 day (actually 476) special military operation that has a goal of achieving something, but nobody actually knows what.