this post was submitted on 01 May 2024
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Paul knows he isn't in control of his own destiny. He's known since he became a Mentat. In the crash following his escape from the Harkonan ambush, he sees it clearly. He can calculate all the ramifications of all his decisions out to thousandth year and no matter what he says or does, it always ends in Jihad.
The closest person to demonstrate agency was his mother, who chose to have a boy rather than a girl in strict defiance of the Bene Gesserit mission. Everything past that was functionally on rails.
He believed he could potentially find a path forward, until he was confronted with a Gonjabar Test he couldn't pass. At that point, he was forced to choose between dying as a martyr (which would kick off a Freman jihad) or living as an Emperor (which would still kick off a Freman jihad, just a bit latter on). And he said "Fuck it, I'd rather be Emperor". That was his only real choice. Die a hero or live to become a villain. But with the same fundamental outcome for the rest of the galaxy.
He chose to be an emperor because it was the best choice for humanity. They needed to largely destroy themselves. After Messiah he leaves into the desert after Chani dies because he can't handle things anymore. His son, Lato II, becomes a sandworm to live for thousands of years so humanity can essentially destroy itself and come back better.
The question is, is their prescience actually perfect or are they limited? Is this actually the only way things could go? Did they miss something as an option because of their own biases?
The books are essentially about a failing of humans to want to follow charismatic leaders. This all happens because the humans wanted to follow either Paul or whoever comes after him. They were ready for the Jihad to happen and just needed to find the person to embody it. If humans can overcome this desire we will be better for it, but we keep doing it.
Paul had plenty of choices, just the ones where he got his revenge on the Harkonnens all lead to Jihad or his death. He chose that road. He spoke of another future where he knelt by the Baron instead, would that future have led to jihad? Certainly it would not have led to his revenge. Its definitely an interesting setting and story. A cautionary tale of being wrapped up in your own myth.
Early on, he has visions of the Fremen worshiping his father's skull and revolting without ever meeting Paul. He can't avoid Jihad by refusing the call to destiny. The Bene Gessiats have been baking this cake for too long.
They're worshiping his father's skull within the memorial made by Paul. In those visions Paul still met them.