this post was submitted on 16 Nov 2023
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Linux
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Linux is a family of open source Unix-like operating systems based on the Linux kernel, an operating system kernel first released on September 17, 1991 by Linus Torvalds. Linux is typically packaged in a Linux distribution (or distro for short).
Distributions include the Linux kernel and supporting system software and libraries, many of which are provided by the GNU Project. Many Linux distributions use the word "Linux" in their name, but the Free Software Foundation uses the name GNU/Linux to emphasize the importance of GNU software, causing some controversy.
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I think several DEs could see mainstream adoption.
If the team that works on Cinnamon got a little bit more manpower and were able to implement larger changes such as adopting Wayland, I think they'd have a chance. Wouldn't hurt to make the default theme a bit nicer too. I think the main thorn in Cinnamon's side is the development pace and the fact that it would probably be viewed by the average person on the street as a weird Windows clone.
Plasma's largest obstacle to mainstream adoption is bugs and instability, but in fairness it has improved a lot over the past couple of years. Seriously, compare 5.27 to any Plasma 4 release or any Plasma 5 release before like 5.16 - it's night and day. Kwin still crashes and takes all your programs down with it, though. That's a showstopper, but will be fixed in Plasma 6.
Speaking of Plasma 6, the fact they keep pushing it back probably means they want it stable from the beginning. KDE are doing a good job putting the "KDE is buggy" statement to bed.
I guess I agree that Gnome as it stands is the most appropriate for widespread adoption. It's extremely polished and beautiful, it has comparatively decent accessibility features, it's extremely stable despite being a frequently updating distro, it has amazing gesture support (better than MacOS even, imo), it's decent in terms of touch support, the GTK4/Libadwaita app ecosystem is healthy, etc. but it's not completely without issues.
Unfortunately this is all academic though until big laptop OEMs start actively pushing for Linux on their devices.
Counterpoint: I don't think any Linux DE will ever see mainstream adoption.
It has nothing to do with how good they are. It's not related to software support either. They could support every piece of software ever made; Linux supports 90% of games for Windows and emulators for dozens of other platforms and it still hasn't attracted more than like 2% of gamers.
It's related to what OP said: to gain mass adoption you need to put up with a lot of bullshit. It takes a company with some financial gain to do that, and paid developers. Volunteer contributors will eventually say "screw this" or go mental like Torvalds.
There's no company that can do this. They tried and failed, because Microsoft. Apple and Google had to create their own platforms from scratch to get away from it.
ChromeOS is Linux, and it has pretty decent penetration.
And I know what you're going to say: "But ChromeOS isn't proper Linux". But it's a desktop OS based on Gentoo, built on the Linux kernel and, GNU coreutils and bash (although not GCC, as far as anyone can tell). It certainly has all the hallmarks of being GNU/Linux (or something very close to it).
The fact that it doesn't really resemble any "mainstream" Linux distro is kind of the point. It's a locked down corporate product with a minimalist front-end locked into a bunch of commercial web services, and that's exactly the kind of device that sells volumes.
Mainstream Linux is a tough sell. It was a tough sell 15 years ago when PCs were still the king of personal computing. In the post-smartphone, post-iPad world which we're in now, we have to accept that that's never going to be the device your grandma uses to check her email.
Plenty of Linux distros aren't just volunteer-based, and are instead made and supported by for-profit companies. Red Hat/Fedora is made by the big blue, IBM themselves; it doesn't get much bigger than that. Ubuntu, SUSE, Manjaro, all for-profit commercial outfits. None of these are failures, it's just that their products aren't targeting the market for cheap commercial laptops. You can buy Ubuntu preloaded on a laptop from Dell or Lenovo, but they're targeting IT professionals and data scientists and people who work with Linux servers. Or they're targeting fleet deployments of 100s of devices in municipal organisations. There's a good market there, it's just a different market.
What! I missed Linus going crazy¿? When did this happen¿? Do you have any videos¿?
100% agreed. I'm only talking about what I think is the most likely in some fantasy land where manufacturers start pushing various distros/DEs.
In reality it wouldn't happen unless a behemoth or a coalition of hardware OEMs put significant money into making it happen.