this post was submitted on 06 Nov 2023
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Reminds me of an article I read long time ago of the need in computer games to tweak percentage chance of success and failure, because if it is true as presented 80% success rate players think it should be "almost always" and complain when one fifth of attempts fail.
Me when the weather app says 80% chance of rain, so I go everywhere with an umbrella but it's overcast all day long. Then it says 15% and I get rained on while walking to the store.
I'm never going to learn.
I found out recently that those percentages actually mean 80% of the local AREA would have rain and 20% would not. Meaning if there is a chance of rain in your town at all it’s likely raining somewhere even if it’s just a tiny drop or two.
So if you don’t want to get wet at all bring an umbrella if the chance is over 0%.
Source: was talking to a meteorologist about this exact thing.
Well rain chance is a compound probability it's the probability that it will or will not rain multiplied by the percent of land hit with rain. Like if 50% of an area will be hit and there's an 80% chance it will rain the number the weather Channel will give you is 40%
Chance of rain is calculated based on two things: Meteorologists' educated guess on the chance of rain, multiplied by the area that will receive rain, in the event it does rain.
https://www.discovery.com/science/chance-of-rain
It’s a big complaint for new players to Baldurs gate 3. People think a 95% chance to hit won’t fail but it does sometimes. Just the luck of the dice.
'drop rates' are the same thing. 10% chance doesn't mean you will see it drop if you run a mission or defeat that boss ten times.
Or thinking that if you didn't get the drop in 9 attempts, you're practically guaranteed it in the next attempt.
Nope, still 1 in 10 chance.
In most simple written RNG calculations, past failures do not guarantee future success.
I believe some games will keep a tally of failures and award a successful loot after x failures to avoid frustrating players.
BG3 literally has setting for this.
Don't use it though. The karmic dice system works for enemies too. So if you enable the system your rolls will fail less often but so will the enemy's dice rolls. With karmic dice on I find the enemies crit me more. Especially on tactician mode.
Yeah Pity systems are quite common Also used in loot boxes to keep you buying with the terrible odds they have
I learned this very VERY well when I played Ragnarok Online in my teens.
There was a huge fight about this on The Battle for Wesnoth