trying to look at the positive side, some house market value correction would be nice
this post was submitted on 10 Mar 2025
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The TCJA passed in Trump's first term. It cut the mortgage interest deduction.
Mortgage interest deduction for newly purchased homes (and second homes) was lowered from total loan balances of $1 million under current law to $750,000. Interest from home equity loans (aka second mortgages) is no longer deductible, unless the money is used for home improvements.
The mortgage interest deduction is a tax break for homeowners, and Trump Term 1 saw that get cut. One would expect that cut to generally apply downwards pressure on house prices, since it makes it more-expensive to borrow money to buy a house.
If one assumes that one could use that as a guidepost as to policy during a second term, maybe that'll continue.
kagis
https://doeren.com/viewpoint/president-trumps-proposed-tax-plans
To that end, GOP lawmakers in the U.S. House of Representatives have compiled a 50-page document that identifies potential avenues they may take, as well as how much these tax and other fiscal changes would cost or save.
To help generate savings, the GOP document proposes making changes to various tax breaks, such as:
- The mortgage interest deduction. Suggestions include eliminating the deduction or lowering the current $750,000 limit to $500,000.
Sounds like it. So that could push prices of houses downwards.
I haven't been following the situation there, so this is just a quick skim, mind.
EDIT: I'd also add that some of Trump's policies may have dramatic increases on house prices, depending on what he actually does at any given point in time; he's not really one for providing clear guidance, and even when he does, one can't very well take his statements at face value. Two potentially relevant factors include:
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Trade disputes with Canada. The US gets a lot of its lumber from Canada, and North American homes are typically wood-framed. If lumber becomes more expensive, that will drive up the materials cost of construction of new homes.
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Illegal immigration. If Trump actually has a significant impact on the illegal immigrant population, it will increase labor costs in construction, as construction makes use of a lot of illegal immigrant labor. That will drive up the labor cost of construction of new homes. My personal take is that most of Trump on immigration is political theater for domestic politics, but it's worth keeping in mind.
So it's hard to judge what factors might dominate.
The biggest influence on housing prices, by far, is the zoning code. Prices are never going to stabilize long term as long as cities keep legally prohibiting supply from meeting demand.
Not if the Fed steps in and bails out Trump with big cuts.
Which honestly could be the point of all this, crash the economy so the fed is forced to cut rates to near zero and all his billionaire buddies can enjoy the fire sale of the republic on the cheap.
Been saying this was part of their plan for a long time. Expropriate money from the government after getting around the ability to track it.
Crash the market.
Buy up big when it's crashed.
If you do politics for the rich and powerful only and the wallstreet still goes downhill, you have seriously fucked up
No no, it has to tank so everything is stupid cheap to buy up since the average person will now be too poor to do anything.
Better yet if you can do it during rapid inflation. Because then the real assets you buy will outpace anything the stock market can do.
And squeeze the fuck out of the little guy. If they can pay rent and nothing else, then you don't have to worry about any competition
Surely mortgage interest rates will follow right? Right? Yeah, right...
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This didned have to happen ...what a damn joke..