this post was submitted on 27 Sep 2023
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Canada
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I'm clearly missing something, because I don't understand why the rest of Canada will be affected (much) from Alberta withdrawing from CPP.
Obviously, the anti-Canada rhetoric is damaging to the stability of our democracy; I just mean directly in terms of financial benefits and costs.
I would assume that a new Alberta plan would get assets with a value equal to the gross contributions of Albertans, plus the realized gains on those contributions, less the benefits received by Albertans. Isn't that a fairly simple calculation? (Granted, doing calculations on billions of data points is never easy, but it seems like a fairly straightforward algorithm to write.)
Having less assets means the investment branch of the CPP might be slightly less efficient, but it should be a negligible difference.
What am I missing?
I think the concern lies in Alberta claiming they are entitled to more than 50% of the money currently in the fund
Right, that's part of the anti-Canada rhetoric I was talking about. The divisiveness is terrible for the country.
What I mean is that they won't get more than their fair share if they split, presumably, regardless of what they want. So how is anyone else's pension at risk?
Thinking about this more, maybe it's because CPP assets can't be easily valued at market rates to determine a fair split? Or maybe doing that calculus would be very expensive? idk
Even if it is expensive, wouldn't it still be a rounding error to a fund as large as the CPP assets?
I literally don't understand the financial risks the author was talking about, and they didn't support the statement, so I wonder if it's just not the case that we should be worried.
I do think the author used a bit of hyperbole at the end there with that statement, but I can see three ways it could negatively affect pensions outside of Alberta.