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OpenAI confirms that AI writing detectors don’t work
(arstechnica.com)
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this post was submitted on 10 Sep 2023
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If you ask this thing whether or not some given text is AI generated, and it is only right 26% of the time, then I can think of a real quick way to make it 74% accurate.
I feel like this must stem from a misunderstanding of what 26% accuracy means, but for the life of me, I can't figure out what it would be.
In statistics, everything is based off probability / likelihood - even binary yes or no decisions. For example, you might say "this predictive algorithm must be at least 95% statistically confident of an answer, else you default to unknown or another safe answer".
What this likely means is only 26% of the answers were confident enough to say "yes" (because falsely accusing somebody of cheating is much worse than giving the benefit of the doubt) and were correct.
There is likely a large portion of answers which could have been predicted correctly if the company was willing to chance more false positives (potentially getting studings mistakenly expelled).