this post was submitted on 27 Dec 2024
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As with many things, it’s hard to pinpoint the exact moment when narrow AI or pre-AGI transitions into true AGI. However, the definition is clear enough that we can confidently look at something like ChatGPT and say it’s not AGI - nor is it anywhere close. There’s likely a gray area between narrow AI and true AGI where it’s difficult to judge whether what we have qualifies, but once we truly reach AGI, I think it will be undeniable.
I doubt it will remain at "human level" for long. Even if it were no more intelligent than humans, it would still process information millions of times faster, possess near-infinite memory, and have access to all existing information. A system like this would almost certainly be so obviously superintelligent that there would be no question about whether it qualifies as AGI.
I think this is similar to the discussion about when a fetus becomes a person. It may not be possible to pinpoint a specific moment, but we can still look at an embryo and confidently say that it’s not a person, just as we can look at a newborn baby and say that it definitely is. In this analogy, the embryo is ChatGPT, and the baby is AGI.