this post was submitted on 18 Aug 2023
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It is a proxy war against America. You don't win those. You just set yourself up a good position and dig in. America gets bored and leaves and then you can pick over what is left of what was destroyed. So you don't win, you just wait for America to forfeit.
It's not just the US though. The European powers are far more firmly committed. It's not at all clear that the rest of NATO will simply walk away if/when the US does. Especially the former Soviet nations; this is not a fucking game to them. The loss of US support would be huge, but I don't see a universe in which the Europeans just roll over for Putin once the US loses interest.
I have to imagine direct intervention would've happened already if it was going to. Why let the Ukrainians get shoved into a meat grinder first? If you're America: it's good business and sells more guns. If you're actually reliant on the buffer zone then it's really not a game, as you say.
if all the US / EU weapon stockpiles get wiped out then the US makes a mint resupplying everyone for the next war, which will be with China using Taiwan as the proxy