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MIT Professor Paul Samuelson’s famous quip, “the stock market has predicted nine out of the last five recessions”
Inverted yield curve has predicted every previous recession and it's as inverted as it was before the 1980s recession. Now people are simply saying it's no longer reliable. 🥴
From this graph, it looks like you're suggesting the 2019 yield curve inversion predicted the 2020 coronavirus recession?
My opinion is that the COVID pandemic wasn't the recession it should have been. We should have entered a recession alongside the pandemic, but instead the government printed a fuck ton of money and pumped it straight into the economy. This led to increased inflation and the situation we're in now. That's why the grey line in 2020 is so thin, and why the yield curve is so deeply inverted now. They basically postponed it by about 4 years.
The total public debt helps explain why there wasn't a recession:
Interesting. How soon after an inversion does a recession need to happen for it to be considered "predicted"? It looks like the longest in your chart is the recession ~2 yrs after the 1978 inversion. The most recent inversion was July 2022. If we're not in recession by this summer, will that still be "predicted"? 2025? 2026?
It's never been the same amount of time since the beginning of the inversion, but there has always been a recession after the inversion goes back to normal. There are a lot of events that are building up that will bring the recession, it will happen over time. My guess is within the next 6-12 months.
I don't think that really answers my question. Saying "there is always a recession after an inversion" is incredibly vague. The only scenario that wouldn't happen is if we somehow fixed the economy perfectly & never had a recession every again ever. But if a recession happens 100 years after an inversion, it's farfetched to say the inversion predicted it. Where's the line?