Europe

1482 readers

464 users here now

News and information from Europe 🇪🇺

(Current banner: La Mancha, Spain. Feel free to post submissions for banner images.)

Rules (2024-08-30)

This is an English-language community. Comments should be in English. Posts can link to non-English news sources when providing a full-text translation in the post description. Automated translations are fine, as long as they don't overly distort the content.
No links to misinformation or commercial advertising. When you post outdated/historic articles, add the year of publication to the post title. Infographics must include a source and a year of creation; if possible, also provide a link to the source.
Be kind to each other, and argue in good faith. Don't post direct insults nor disrespectful and condescending comments. Don't troll nor incite hatred. Don't look for novel argumentation strategies at Wikipedia's List of fallacies.
No bigotry, sexism, racism, antisemitism, dehumanization of minorities, or glorification of National Socialism.
Be the signal, not the noise: Strive to post insightful comments. Add "/s" when you're being sarcastic (and don't use it to break rule no. 3).
If you link to paywalled information, please provide also a link to a freely available archived version. Alternatively, try to find a different source.
Light-hearted content, memes, and posts about your European everyday belong in !yurop@lemm.ee. (They're cool, you should subscribe there too!)
Don't evade bans. If we notice ban evasion, that will result in a permanent ban for all the accounts we can associate with you.
No posts linking to speculative reporting about ongoing events with unclear backgrounds. Please wait at least 12 hours. (E.g., do not post breathless reporting on an ongoing terror attack.)

(This list may get expanded when necessary.)

We will use some leeway to decide whether to remove a comment.

If need be, there are also bans: 3 days for lighter offenses, 14 days for bigger offenses, and permanent bans for people who don't show any willingness to participate productively. If we think the ban reason is obvious, we may not specifically write to you.

If you want to protest a removal or ban, feel free to write privately to the mods: @federalreverse@feddit.org, @poVoq@slrpnk.net, or @anzo@programming.dev.

founded 4 months ago

MODERATORS

federalreverse@feddit.org

poVoq@slrpnk.net

anzo@programming.dev

115

Russia faces stagflation threat as growth slows: Prices for bread have jumped so much over the last few years that Russian pensioners sometimes have to go without (www.france24.com)

submitted 1 month ago by 0x815@feddit.org to c/europe@feddit.org

19 comments fedilink hide all child comments

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/2778064

Moscow has funnelled billions of dollars to its army, soldiers, their families and weapons makers to sustain its military campaign -- a spending splurge that helped it defy Western hopes that sanctions would push it into economic collapse.

But after warning for months that the economy was overheating, the country's Central Bank has lately started mentioning the possibility of another, possibly more challenging development: stagflation.

"The shortage of (labour) resources may lead to a situation where economic growth slows down, despite all the efforts to stimulate demand, with all that stimulus accelerating inflation," Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said over the summer.

"In essence, this is a stagflation scenario, which can only be stopped at the cost of a deep recession," she warned.

'De-modernising'

Stagflation -- a period of low or stagnant growth accompanied by high inflation -- would present a fresh headache for the Kremlin, which has until now navigated the economic fallout of its offensive on Ukraine better than most believed possible.

Moscow has increased government spending by almost 50 percent since sending troops into Ukraine, pushing up growth and wages.

Unemployment is at a record low and consumer confidence is its highest in 15 years.

But an exodus of both skilled and unskilled workers -- who fled mobilisation or joined the army -- has created millions of unfilled vacancies. Sanctions on Western technology have also hit productivity and damaged supply chains.

"In the long-term these demographic factors and technological issues will result in very low economic growth," Ruben Enikolopov, a Russian professor at the Barcelona School of Economics, says.

"There is a high probability of a stagflation scenario in 2025 and the years after. It's not a certainty, but high likelihood," he added.

you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments

[–] atro_city@fedia.io 2 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Russia needs to be able to produce enough weapons to wage war

Of course, but if Ukraine loses before Russia crumbles, it won't matter to Ukraine. No one knows how long it will take for Russia to crumble nor if it ever will. China, Iran, North Korea, and Turkey are all supporting it.

Erdogan recently said Russia should return Crimea, but is he willing to sanction Russia? Russia is running out of Yuan, but will China truly stop trading with Russia or will they just accept debt? It's a very complicated situation and if the West doesn't allow Ukraine to strike Russia with long range missiles nor provide enough weapons and ammunition to drive Russia back, Russia's economic woes don't matter. They don't matter if Russia wins the war.

Also Russia and Ukraine can both be defeated in the same peace deal

What kind of peace deal are you talking about?

[–] Melchior@feddit.org 1 points 1 month ago

Of course, but if Ukraine loses before Russia crumbles, it won’t matter to Ukraine.

There are a lot of countries, which Russia wants to invade besides Ukraine. I mentioned a few and there are a lot more in the Caucasus and Central Asia. Even Ukraine would benefit, even in a total defeat. That would mean underground warfare against Russia and a weak Russia would be hurt badly by that. Ukraine is just much harder to control then Chechnya, if they do not want to be a part of Russia.

China, Iran, North Korea, and Turkey are all supporting it.

No, they mostly just trade with Russia. They are not sending aid. If Russia collapses Iran and North Korea would be unhappy, but they will not intervene. Turkey and China do not care at all. Both of them can benefit from it, if they play it right. I am just saying Central Asia and for China parts of the Russian Far East.

What kind of peace deal are you talking about?

For example one, which freezes the current situation. Russia looses, as a victory was always to take all of Ukraine or at least the territories it claims to be Russian, which it does not control and Kursk. Ukraine also looses as it has already claimed victory would be taking back control over all territory, which is internationaly recognised as being Ukrainian. So both sides have been defeated. That is actually a very likely outcome.